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The Case of Western Sahara and the Prospects of the New Russia–West Rivalry
The 20th-century Cold War, which pitted the United States against the Soviet Union from 1947 to 1991, not only shaped military alliances and the global balance of power. It also left behind a complex legacy: frozen conflicts, contested borders, regimes supported for ideological rather than democratic reasons, and grey zones in international law. These remnants, far from disappearing, continue to fuel local and regional tensions while shaping contemporary foreign policy.
Western Sahara is a revealing example of these “scars” left by the first Cold War. Through it, one can see how the superpower rivalry froze conflicts that would persist well beyond their original context. Similarly, the current rivalry between Russia and the West — sometimes described as a “new Cold War” — appears poised to leave behind future complications that may be just as, if not more, complex.
Western Sahara: A Conflict Frozen by Cold War Logic
a) Origins and context
A former Spanish colony, Western Sahara has been claimed by Morocco since the 1970s, while the Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, demands independence on behalf of the Sahrawi people. When Spain withdrew in 1975, the East–West rivalry quickly entered the picture.
American side: The United States viewed Morocco as a strategic ally in the region, a moderate partner in contrast to regimes close to Moscow. Washington thus supported Rabat, directly or indirectly, through military and diplomatic assistance.
Soviet side: The USSR and its allies, notably Algeria, backed the Polisario Front, both for ideological reasons (a national liberation movement) and to counter American influence in the Maghreb.
b) Consequences of this proxy confrontation
This opposing support entrenched the conflict. The open war between Morocco and the Polisario Front (1975–1991) ended with a ceasefire but no political settlement. The results:
A “no peace, no war” situation lasting over three decades.
Diplomatic deadlock at the UN Security Council, where alliances forged during the Cold War continue to shape positions and votes.
A profitable status quo for certain powers, which maintain regional influence by exploiting local rivalries.
This frozen conflict is a typical Cold War legacy: a situation born of external strategic interests, locked in place by alliances, and difficult to resolve unless regional and international balances shift.
From the First to the New Cold War: A Repeating Pattern
Since 2014, and especially since 2022, the Russia–West confrontation has taken on a form reminiscent of the Cold War: economic sanctions, arms races, proxy wars, and competition for influence in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
a) Current example: Ukraine as the epicenter
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine illustrates this direct rivalry. Behind the conflict lie dynamics comparable to those of the 20th century:
Western side: Defense of an international order based on sovereignty and self-determination, but also preservation of economic and military spheres of influence.
Russian side: A determination to reassert regional and global power, secure strategic buffers, and challenge NATO expansion.
b) Future complications
As with Western Sahara, the war in Ukraine is likely to leave long-term scars, even if a ceasefire or partial agreement is reached:
Disputed territories (Crimea, Donbas) whose status may remain contested for decades.
Enduring economic sanctions that will freeze trade and financial relations.
Strengthened military alliances (expanded NATO, closer Russia–China–Iran ties) that will harden geopolitical blocs.
Proxy wars elsewhere: in Africa (Mali, Sudan, Central African Republic), Central Asia, and potentially the Middle East, where Russia and the West will support opposing sides.
Conclusion: A Hard-to-Break Cycle
Western Sahara shows that conflicts inherited from the Cold War can persist for more than half a century, even after losing their original strategic relevance. The current Russia–West confrontation seems to be reproducing this pattern, crystallizing divisions that could remain long after direct hostilities end.
History suggests that resolving these frozen conflicts requires not only local political will but also the dismantling or transformation of great power rivalries. Without this, contested zones will remain “ghosts” of past and present Cold Wars, fueling instability and distrust for generations to come.